Navigating Authoritarianism: EU Migration Policies and Domestic Politics in Tunisia Under Kaïs Saïed Regime

The article delves into the transformative potential of migraton dynamics in reshaping the power dynamics between the global South and North. It contributes to this literature by scrutinising Tunisia's strategic manoeuvring within the framework of the EU's border externalisatin policies, particularly in the aftermath of the country's shift towards authoritarianism in 2021. Drawing on the concept of migration diplomacy, the article posits that EU pressure to manage migration has afforded Saïed strategic leverage to consolidate his regime internally and recalibrate Tunisia's poisoning vis-à-vis the EU. The analysis focuses on the interplay between migration dynamics, EU external policies, and the consolidation of authoritarian rule in Tunisia. Under the presidency of Kaïs Saïed, who assumed power following the 2019 elections, Tunisia witnessed a consolidation of authoritarian tendencies, marked by the suspension of parliament and the consolidation of legislative authority under the new 2022 hyper-presidential Constitution. Against this backdrop, Tunisia's emergence as a primary departure point for migrants bound for Italian shores in 2023 has underscored its strategic significance within the EU's foreign policy in the neighbourhood. This development prompted swiQ EU actions, which manifested in deploying various externalisation mechanisms -- including readmission agreements, border control initiatives, and aid disbursement. However, despite increased cooperation with the EU on migration-related matters, President Saïed has maintained a stance of preserving Tunisian sovereignty, rejecting the notion of acting as Europe's "coastguard" in border enforcement. The study thus examines how the upgrading in migration cooperation and, in parallel, the progressive reduction of veto actors in the Tunisian system facilitated Saïed's incorporation of migration management into a broader strategy aimed at reconciling internal and external imperatives. This intricate interplay between cooperation and sovereignty projection reflects a dual strategy employed by President Saïed. On the one hand, collaboration with the EU serves as a means to secure vital resources for Tunisia's economy and regime survival. On the other hand, Saïed leverages a narrative grounded in sovereignty, identity, and anti-colonialism to bolster his legitimacy domestically. The paper relies on two primary sources. First, 15 (mainly expert) interviews were carried out in Tunisia throughout 2023. Second, I analyse policy documents along with two other main sources -- a review of the President's Facebook profile and some prominent Tunisian newspapers from 2022 up to April 2024. Analytically, the article is informed by Bayart's concept of extraversion and Putnam's two-level game theory --shedding light on the complex interplay of interests and power dynamics shaping Tunisia's migration policies amidst the evolving domes:c and Mediterranean context.