Unlocking Potential: Integrating Future Scenarios in the Evaluation of Development Programs in Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights

Despite global efforts, the number of girls and women affected by any form of female genital mutilation / cutting (FGM/C) has continued to rise. Such practices represent a fundamental violation of the human rights of those affected and are strongly condemned in international conventions and resolutions (CEDAW, CRC, DEVAW). This underscores the necessity for all contracting states to review and enhance their efforts in eradicating FGM/C. Evaluation of development policies and strategies aimed at promoting sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) plays a pivotal role in this endeavour. The paper focuses on the potential optimization of strategies and programs to address these harmful practices by incorporating future scenarios into evaluations. Our aim is to derive well-founded recommendations that are not solely based on retrospective evaluations of past programs but also integrate potential future scenarios. This approach aims to render SRHR programs aimed at combating FGM/C more future proof, thereby enhancing their effectiveness. A recent study by the German Foundation for World Population underscores the need to make SRHR programs more resilient to highly unpredictable potential future events. In this study, the foundation demonstrated that the current rise in FGM/C is significantly attributed to the coronavirus pandemic and periods of drought. The paper is based on the hypothesis that integrating future scenarios into the evaluation of SRHR programs is a promising approach to derive well-founded recommendations. To test this hypothesis, we conduct an initial qualitative content analysis of existing recommendations underlying SRHR programs within the framework of German development cooperation to ascertain the inclusion of future scenarios. Subsequently, a cross-sectional study compares program effectiveness, juxtaposing programs that consider future scenarios with those that do not. Finally, considerations are made to assess the transferability of results specifically to programs aimed at combating FGM/C. The research findings aim to enhance the effectiveness of SRHR programs by guiding more precise and adaptable strategies for promoting the physical and mental health of women and adolescents. Thus, this study represents a step towards developing an innovative evaluation framework that could potentially have broader applications in the evaluation of development cooperation in the future.