Tactics, targets, and the development of conflict: A spatial and processual analysis of the first phase of the Northern Ireland conflict

How do players’ violent strategies and tactics evolve and endure during a conflict? Strategic interactionist theory provides insights into the selection of conflict postures (e.g., violent or non-violent). Less clear is how strategies, particularly tactics and targeting, are adapted and sustained and the factors that influence these (strategic) shifts, as well as the multiple dilemmas involved. This paper examines the evolution and endurance of tactics and targeting through the case of the Northern Ireland conflict. Using data from 1969 to 1975 drawn from a catalogue of violent fatalities in Northern Ireland, this process-tracing study combines quantitative geo-spatial techniques with qualitative analysis. Measures of the rate and spatial dispersion/concentration of players’ targets and tactics enables longitudinal within-case comparisons; inspection of the players’ statements reveals the strategic development underlying the evolution of the conflict. The paper contributes to interactionist theorizing by paying specific attention to players strategic thinking and dilemmas and the way this is shaped by violent actors’ multiple interactions with other players in the conflict arena.