Regime Transformations and Reproductive Rights: A Time Series Analysis in High-Income Countries

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between regime transformations and reproductive rights policies in high-income countries, with a focus on understanding the directional influence of these variables. Recent developments in the US and Poland exemplify the co-occurrence of democratic backsliding and a decline in reproductive rights both in new and old democracies, raising critical questions about the interplay of regimes’ nature and personal rights. Regime transformations significantly impact a range of policies, notably those governing reproductive rights, which encompass sexuality education, contraception, abortion, assisted reproductive technologies, and pregnancy care. We focus on two types of regime changes: autocratization and democratization. Our research asks critical questions: Do changes in reproductive rights precede or follow these political shifts? Is this relationship consistent during the democratization and autocratization periods? These rights are pivotal in determining individual autonomy and gender equality, serving as critical indicators of a regime's nature. Despite their significance, the influence of reproductive rights in the context of political shifts has not been sufficiently explored in democracy research. To bridge this gap, the study employs a quantitative analysis utilizing data from the International Reproductive Policy Database (IRPD) (Zagel, 2023) and the Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset (Maerz et al., 2021), covering the period from 1980 to 2020 across 31 countries. This research is unique in its application of the Granger Causality Test within a time series framework, examining whether regime changes can predict alterations in reproductive rights policies and vice versa (Shojaie and Fox 2022).