Can an elected representative's ideological positioning within their party impact upon their electoral performance? Evidence from UK elections in the second decade of the 21st century

This paper analyses the impact of the ideological positioning of UK Members of Parliament within their party on their future electoral performance. It uses a combination of textual analysis of each member’s contributions to debates in the House of Commons, and their membership of within party parliamentary groups with a clear ideological affiliation, as indicators of the ideological identity they project to the electorate. Focusing on Conservative MPs elected or re-elected at the 2010 general election it analyses the impact of those aspects of their parliamentary activities on their performance in the 2015, 2017 and 2019 general elections. It presents evidence to support the notion that identifying clearly with a particular ideological faction within their party can have a significant impact on the level of support a representative receives in future elections. Whether that impact is positive or negative appears to depend at least in part on the wider context in which the election takes place. Members of the pro-Brexit European Research Group performed significantly better than non-members in the 2017 poll, the first of two UK elections dominated by the Brexit issue. In the same contest the greater the level of similarity a Conservative representatives’ contributions to parliamentary debates displayed with those of former Prime Minister David Cameron from the moderate, liberal wing of the party the weaker their electoral performance. These findings contribute to the literature on how the behaviour of elected representatives impacts upon their electoral performance.