Decarbonization and the future geography of energy-intensive industry: results of a global expert survey

Renewable hydrogen is an enabler for the decarbonization of energy-intensive industries, like the chemical and steel sector. Together these sectors account for almost 15 percent ofglobal greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, making their decarbonization an urgent priority to meet carbon neutrality targets by mid-century. The rapid ramp-up of the production of renewable hydrogen is not only a crucial challenge in this context. It also raises important questions regarding the future geography of climate-friendly industrial production. For existing industrial centers, it raises the question how to secure access to sufficient amounts of renewable hydrogen to decarbonize existing facilities. At the same time, regions with high levels of renewable potential are exploring the possibility of utilizing this as an asset to attract new investment in climate-friendly industrial production. While this debate has remained largely theoretical to date, a new survey provides a first set of empirical data on the phenomenon. In the survey, over 300 managers from the 50 largest chemical and steel companies worldwide provided their expectations on how the decarbonization of industry will affect investment decisions in the two sectors by 2050. As industry experts and decision-makers, the survey respondents are not only uniquely positioned to offer insights into current trends, but their expectations will also influence investment decisions in their companies. In other words, the expectations captured in the survey will shape the industrial landscape on the ground.