A frozen peace or a frozen conflict? How citizens in Bosnia and Herzegovina perceive a country break-up scenario

Contrary to popular belief, the Global Peace Index ranked Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) as one of the 50 most peaceful countries between 2008 and 2016. Although the country has decreased in ranking in recent years (61st in 2023), it still maintains a high level of peace among the 163 countries measured. However, some Southeastern European pundits, commentators, and international think tanks argue that the risk of a country's break-up involving a potential violent escalation is at its highest. This alleged threat, however, is neither new nor unprecedented. The question remains, how do ordinary citizens perceive these contrasting views? Who do they believe is responsible for fostering such dire scenarios? This study addresses these questions by employing a reflexive thematic analysis of (25) semi-structured interviews conducted in BiH with citizens of diverse origins between November 2023 and January 2024. The findings contribute to the literature on frozen conflicts and post-conflict dynamics by providing an individual-level perspective on the role of media and an artificially construed inevitability of conflict.