First- and Second-Order Opinions on Climate Politics among Citizens, Politicians, and Bureaucrats

For a collective-action issue like climate change, studying people's attitudes (first-order opinions) is not sufficient; we also need to understand their expectations regarding what others believe (second-order opinions). Existing studies, predominantly from the US, show that people tend to underestimate how worried others are about climate change, and they also underestimate how much support there is for specific climate policies. These dynamics remain relatively unexplored within the context of a multi-party system, where different political cleavages are likely to be influential. This paper explores what shape second-order opinions on climate politics in Norway, by specifically looking at support for meat-free days in canteens. The exact same questions are posed in a population-based survey sample of ordinary citizens (N = 2,045), a sample of elected representatives (N = 929), and a sample of public administrators (N = 1,562). Politicians are much less likely to support a meat-free day than voters, while bureaucrats are much more likely to support it. Across all three groups, there is a prevalent perception that only a minority of Norwegians supports meat-free days, and politicians have a particularly pessimistic view of the potential for meat reduction as a measure to reduce carbon emissions.