Autocratization and the dismantling of climate policy: A risk to global climate protection efforts?

To limit global warming and mitigate the global climate crisis, there is a strong need for countries to implement climate policies to influence greenhouse gas emitting behavior and stimulate a green transition of the economy. Literature has mostly studied the expansion of countries’ climate policy, aiming to explain why some lead by example and others lag behind. Less is known, however, about the dismantling of climate policy. More specifically, when and under what circumstances countries reduce their climate ambition by either diminishing the strictness of their climate protection regime or even completely removing existing climate policy. In recent years, we have seen examples where populist politicians during periods of autocratization, such as in the USA under Donald Trump or in Brazil under Jair Bolsonaro, have harmed their countries’ climate protection efforts in several ways. Both countries experienced an undermining of their climate protection regulatory regime and a weakening of their environmental administration. Both regimes are only examples of a new ‘wave’ of autocratization since about 2010, which tends to be characterized by democratic backsliding in established democracies and by populist politicians and parties entering government. This leads us to ask whether processes of autocratization generally enhance climate policy dismantling and therefore pose a risk to future global climate protection efforts. In this contribution, we investigate whether and to what extent autocratization has resulted in direct or indirect dismantling of countries’ climate policy. We further aim to unravel the reasons for why especially populist politicians in periods of autocratization (intend to) dismantle climate policy. To achieve our research aims, we first provide a conceptualization of climate policy dismantling building on existing literature. Second, we develop a theoretical argument on the relationship between autocratization and climate policy dismantling, based on existing literature on autocratization and environmental / climate policy. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical argument empirically in selected cases. Overall, our paper will contribute to an enhanced understanding of climate policy dismantling and to what degree current autocratization processes endanger global efforts to protect the climate.