More or Less Green? Political conflict and the environment

Politics is central to resolving many environmental problems, not least climate change, and so the preferences of political actors play important roles in obstructing or facilitating such environmental action. Previous research on the party politics of the environment drawing on data from 2010 or earlier (Carter 2013) found that while Green parties formed a homogenous party family characterised by strong environmental, libertarian and left-wing policy positions, mainstream parties had mostly employed dismissive and accommodative strategies towards the environment. Although left-wing parties generally adopted more pro-environment policy positions than right-wing parties, there were only marginal differences between them. Over a decade later, climate change is even more prominent on the political agenda and Green parties have had spells in government in several countries, yet climate policies often provoke widespread opposition, causing nervousness among mainstream parties and contributing to the growing support for (often climate-sceptic) far right parties in many European countries. It is therefore a good moment to revisit key questions about the party politics of the environment. This paper examines the role of historic issue cleavages in shaping the politicisation of the environment, and in particular whether a strong left-right cleavage facilitates this development (Green-Pedersen and Little, 2023). It examines whether environmental preferences have continued to become less a classic valence issue and more a conflictual, positional issue, and whether individual parties’ left-right positions are increasingly associated with their environmental policy preferences. And as the salience of the environment has risen, have Green parties remained homogenous and distinctive in respect of their environmental policy preferences? The paper will draw on Chapel Hill Expert Survey, Manifesto Project and EU Profiler data to provide an analysis of party positions and issue salience across countries and over time.