The politics of climate policy backlash: German MP perspectives on climate-neutral heating

As the heating of space and water in buildings accounts for 80% of CO2 emissions in the building sector, a sector which contributes over a quarter of the world’s energy-related emissions (IEA, 2023), the decarbonisation of heating systems is a crucial piece of the puzzle for countries to meet the 1.5oC target of the 2015 Paris Agreement. In Germany, the revised Federal Climate Law 2021 contains specific sectoral targets which mandate that emissions produced in the building sector are reduced by 40% by 2030, necessitating a shift towards renewable heating in homes (Huckebrink and Bertsch, 2022). However, the implementation of these targets requires concrete action by government and impacts individuals’ everyday lives. In other words, it involves ‘hard’ climate policy, such as regulation and phaseouts, which may cause negative policy feedback (Jordan and Moore, 2020) or policy backlash (Patterson, 2023). One recent example of intensely contested climate policy was the so-called ‘heating hammer’ in Germany, which aimed to mandate the installation of heat pumps in domestic buildings from January 2024. Before legislation was even brought to parliament, there was loud resistance from the media, public and opposition politicians which watered down the policy eventually adopted. However, it is unclear, firstly, to what extent this episode can analytically be described as policy backlash, and secondly, whether such a reaction should be expected or accepted in a democratic system? This paper explores these questions by employing different conceptual frameworks on resistance to climate policy (e.g. policy backlash, negative policy feedback) to analyse original 2023 interview data with German federal MPs during the ‘heating hammer’ contestation. Indeed, by focusing on how cross-party politicians discussed the contested policy during interviews, the paper provides MPs’ own constructed perspectives on the nature of the backlash itself, the legitimacy of state intervention in this area, and the role of the media. The paper therefore has pertinent findings to those working on climate politics and policy, discussing what role, if any, MPs can play to prevent backlash to the radical climate action needed to transform society.