Nationalism and Climate Policy: Unraveling the Paradox of Nationalist-driven Public Opposition in Progressive Societies

While previous public opinion research has demonstrated a generally strong relationship between nationalist orientations and opposition to climate policies, the strength of this relationship varies substantially across countries. Meanwhile, existing studies have not been able provide a compelling explanation for these cross-national differences. Paradoxically, in countries where nationalist sentiments and rightwing populist parties are less prevalent, such as in Nordic countries, nationalist attitudes are strongly correlated with opposition to climate policies. Conversely, in regions with more widespread nationalist public views and political parties, like Eastern Europe, this correlation is considerably weaker. This unexpected pattern therefore challenges theories about post-materialist values as well as assumptions based on the prevalence of nationalist attitudes and rightwing populist parties. To address these puzzling findings, our study explores potential contextual factors that could explain existing cross-national differences. Drawing on theories of anti-reflexivity and cultural backlash, we hypothesize that societies characterized by progressive and post-materialist values are also more susceptible to rightwing populist resistance against the progressive and cosmopolitan project, including issues such as climate change and liberal gender norms. Indeed, our results show that in gender-equal countries, nationalist attitudes are more likely to translate into opposition to climate policies. Our results therefore support the notion that the comparably strong relationship found between nationalist attitudes and opposition to climate policy is a manifestation of a rightwing populist backlash to the broader progressive and cosmopolitan political agenda.