Welfare models and party blocs in time of crisis: between resilience and crisis

The European economic crisis that started in 2009 brought several changes in the European party systems, particularly towards the end of the second decade of the 2000s. In these times new challenges emerged for traditional party families, particularly but not exclusively for the left, as we also witnessed the crisis of other traditional parties, often in parallel with the rise of challenger populist parties. In Europe we can also observe the presence of four main traditional welfare models (Mediterranean, Continental, Liberal, post-communist), which responded differently to the economic crisis and policy changes. Thus, are these phenomena affecting all in the same way or can we see some differences among ‘blocs’ or ‘political families’ and across the welfare models? This paper aims to be a comprehensive assessment of these phenomena, showing how the various blocs faced in front of the crisis in the various welfare systems. Which of the traditional ones proved more resilient, and who gained more? In this context, we aim to provide a comparative analysis of the relevance of the different welfare models on the electoral results of the various parties from the left, centre left, centre right, far right, populist and green blocs in the 27 EU countries, plus Norway, Switzerland and the UK. We take into account their electoral results between the first election prior to the European economic crisis (2009) and 2020. Our research aims to look at the correlation between welfare models, changes in the welfare systems and electoral results for parties across the political spectrum. In other words, we aim to assess if changes in welfare policies, considered with regard to social expenditures, can be a relevant variable for explaining electoral shifts, and in particular the role of contenders that endorse forms of welfare chauvinism (radical-right populist parties). On the other hand, this analysis has further exploratory value in assessing the relevance and resilience of political blocs. Our analysis is based on largely quantitative research examining electoral data and macroeconomic variables, plus data on political orientation of parties (GALTAN positions and economic left-right) from the CHES. In the first part, provide a general assessment of the relationship between social policies and electoral results for the various blocs and formulate our expectations. The second part is dedicated to a preliminary analysis of the data, with a focus on potential differences connected to parties that are in government or in opposition, variations among different welfare state models, and the role of the main contenders (welfare chauvinists, populists, greens).