Unpacking local mechanisms behind anti-immigrant violence: From political mobilization to far-right attacks

This paper explores why opposition to migration results in violence in some localities but not in others. Previous research has highlighted various explanatory models for such violence, including discursive opportunities, political opportunities and grievances. The diversity of explanations in the literature suggests that violence against migrants is a complex phenomenon, with factors having different effects in varying contexts and multiple causal pathways potentially leading to violence. In a prior large-scale comparative analysis of violence against refugees during the 2015-2016 refugee wave, we identified what we term a "combined local mobilization model" postulating that violence against migrants predominantly occurs in settings where 1) there is a convergence of anti-migrant grievances, 2) prior local protests have specifically targeted and framed certain groups or locations, and 3) there is a presence of extreme-right groups. In the model, none of these causes alone is sufficient to induce violence; rather, it is the presence of all three conditions that distinguishes municipalities where anti-immigrant violence occurs from those where it does not. The model demonstrates robust empirical support within Swedish cases, accounting for approximately 40% of the municipalities where incidents occurred. However, the operational mechanisms within the model remain underdeveloped. Further in-depth case studies are essential to develop the causal mechanisms involved. This paper conducts a detailed study of three incidents of anti-migrant mobilization in the Gothenburg area, each aligning differently with the model’s central conditions. By analyzing and contrasting these cases, the study seeks to trace the processes and reveal the underlying mechanisms of the model.