European Union as a conflict management actor in South Caucasus and the war in Ukraine as the critical juncture

The conference paper represents a theory-guided case study, which is focused on the role of the EU as a crisis management actor in South Caucasus, more specifically in Georgia. Theoretically it is based on the premises of new institutionalism, more specifically, historical institutionalism (HI). Historical institutionalism, similarly as the rational choice institutionalism, pays attention to the way in which the actors choose and design the institutions (within the logic of the transaction-cost approach), but HI also focuses more on how the institutions change or persist over time. In the paper we thus primarily apply the premises of historic institutionalism, we work with the concepts of path dependence, critical juncture, continuity and change, more specifically the incremental changes on one side, that take place within the logic of the path-dependency, and radical change/reform, which may be triggered by the influence of an external crisis. In case of our research such external crisis is represented by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We focus here more particularly on the EU's performance as the security actor in South Caucasus via the EUMM Georgia civilian mission that was deployed to fulfil the tasks connected with crisis management. The tasks and the functioning of the mission have been gradually adapted to the requirements of the EU comprehensive and integrated approach to external conflicts and crises, with strong elements of continuity. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent outbreak of current war represent an important external event that shook the security situation not only in South Caucasus but in the whole post-soviet region, on the European continent and to a large extent also in the international dimension. The question thus arises, whether current period (after February 2022) represents the so-called critical juncture with the potential to bring radical changes and shifts in the existing EU policy as a crisis management actor. The main aims of the paper are as follows: 1) To assess the current period after Russian invasion of Ukraine as a possible critical juncture from the perspective of the EU as a crisis management actor; 2) To assess the continuity or change in the EU's engagement as the crisis management actor in South Caucasus, with particular emphasis on the performance of the EUMM in Georgia. The main research questions are as follows: What are the main impacts of the war in Ukraine on the EU's role as a security actor in Georgia and in the South Caucasus as such? What are the triggering factors that support possible changes in the EU's role as crisis management and security actor? What are the limiting factors? The research will focus here especially on 3 sets of factors: roles of the other external actors/players in relation to Georgia and South Caucasus; internal political situation in Georgia; willingness/motivations for change within the EU itself (the responsible institutional actors). The methods of data gathering and analysis combine the directed content analysis (documents concerning the changes of the EUMM mandate) and interviews with experts and insiders.