Conditions and contexts for an effective EU regulation on deforestation-free products

The European Union (EU) has recently adopted the EU regulation on deforestation-free products (EUDR) to halt deforestation associated with EU agricultural and timber imports. However, the pathways through which the EUDR is expected to bring about its intended effects in different contexts are not well understood. We conduct an ex-ante theory-based evaluation to examine potential pathways how the EUDR affects deforestation. We outline several theories of change how the EUDR can lead to its intended impacts of reducing deforestation - in and beyond supply-chains for EU consumption - but also highlight risks of leakage effects that undermine its effectiveness. By drawing on existing evaluations of other supply chain regulations related to land-use, we identify conditions that affect the likelihood of achieving the intended outcomes of the regulation in different contexts. We present examples from different commodity supply chains to exemplify that the effects of the EUDR will likely vary with, among others, the EU market share of the targeted commodities, the stickiness of supply chains, and the availability of incentives and alternative livelihoods of producers in risk of deforesting.