Feedback effects between local climate policy sequences and public opinion in Germany

The nascent literature on policy sequencing suggests that stepwise and strategic adoption and implementation of policies might overcome barriers to policy stringency over time (Pahle et al., 2018). Such sequencing can advance policy design and ambitiousness. While it has been shown that policy sequences for the case of carbon pricing constitute a consistent pattern in many countries (Linsenmeier et al., 2022), country-specific mechanisms are not well understood. Public support is a crucial element for policy sequences and can be decisive for the success or failure of the policy. Prior research on carbon pricing, for example, suggests that the strategic ordering of policies into sequences that initially create benefits could be an effective strategy for broadening public support for ambitious climate policies (Montfort et al., 2023). Systematic evidence about this relationship is limited. In particular, we know little about effect duration. Based on a case study for local climate policy in Germany, we offer novel insights into these temporal dynamics by spatially linking three comprehensive data sources: High-resolution landscape structures derived from earth observation data, an extensive local climate policy dataset for Germany since 2008, and a georeferenced panel study on climate policy attitudes in Germany since 2016. Germany represents a crucial case where local support for climate policies strongly vary across regions (Levi et al., 2023). By utilizing landscape profiles as an instrumental variable and operationalizing policy implementation with various temporal lags, we will investigate feedback effects between policy sequencing and public support for local climate policies. This study contributes to our understanding of policy processes and successful strategies for the implementation of ambitious climate policies.