Modern Democracies And Their Secret Machinations: Conspiracy Mentality And Conspiracy Belief in Europe

Over the last decade, stimulated by complex political crises, the idea of corrupt elites scheming in secret against ordinary citizens has gained prominence in Western societies. While political science research increasingly delves into this phenomenon, most studies mainly centre on the United States and overlook the distinctive social and political contexts of European democracies, marked by significant regional variations. Additionally, many studies focus on single issues, such as migration and COVID-19, instead of using a comparative approach to understand conspiracy beliefs and underlying factors more comprehensively. Based on two waves of survey data collected in ten EU Member States (Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden) in autumn 2022 and in spring 2024, our study addresses this gap. Firstly, we examine the prevalence of both a general conspiracy mentality and specific issue-based conspiracy narratives (on topics like migration, climate change and COVID-19) across Europe, highlighting variations among countries and specific social groups. Secondly, we investigate the deeper roots and contexts of these different forms of political conspiracy belief. By applying statistical modelling, we examine how socioeconomic and sociocultural determinants - like subjective deprivation, feelings of being left behind, social distrust, dissatisfaction with democracy, and low political efficacy - impact different forms of general and issue-specific forms of conspiracy belief. With this, the study contributes to the growing body of literature on political conspiracy belief by providing a comprehensive and comparative perspective on the recent surge in such narratives across Europe.