Left Behind by the Left? Deindustrialization and Voting in the UK, 1974-2019

Recent research consistently shows that deindustrialization contributed to the rise of right-wing populism in the 21st century. But why do voters exposed to localized economic shocks not support left-wing parties, despite what their economic interests might suggest? I argue that center-left parties face a political choice between remaining loyal to traditional constituencies and pivoting in response to structural economic changes, and their strategy shapes how exposed voters respond to these shocks. By examining electoral outcomes and survey data from the United Kingdom over the past five decades, I show that deindustrialization initially increased support for the Labour Party when Labour remained loyal to traditional manufacturing industries. However, as Labour began to pivot towards rising service and knowledge-based industries, the link between deindustrialization shocks and Labour voting weakened substantially. While existing studies attribute a weak (or lack of) leftward shift to voters' conservative attitudes and the decline of trade unions, this paper highlights the critical role of party strategies in explaining this pattern.