Who to entrust with political power? (Pre)-Selection criteria for party leaders

In the face of widespread democratic backsliding, political parties act as essential gatekeepers for political leaders. This role is especially critical because political parties fulfill a guardian function vis-à-vis democracy (Levitsky & Ziblatt 2018). Recently, the neglect of this guardian function has significantly contributed to the erosion of democratic structures, as illustrated by prominent cases such as the US Republicans’ presidential candidate Trump or the reorganization of Austria’s ÖVP and state affairs under Chancellor Kurz. Therefore, my proposed project seeks to address a crucial question: What qualities make party politicians suitable for leadership? Parties face a dual responsibility: preventing individuals with autocratic tendencies from ascending through party ranks while ensuring that leaders from the political center maintain high performance. Poorly performing democratic leaders inadvertently strengthen anti-democratic forces on the margins by fueling their agitational politics through poor political craftsmanship and with weak governance. Concurrently, political scientists have identified high influence of individuals on politics especially in parliamentary systems (e.g.: Rahat & Sheafer 2007; Garzia et al. 2022). This trend is also evident within political parties (Poguntke & Webb 2005; Rahat 2024). “Studies of the relationship between leaders, their parties, and political institutions have argued that European democracies have become increasingly personalized, that is […] party leaders rather than political parties are now the decisive actors in the political system” (Costa Lobo 2015). Consequently, a systematic analysis of how and why individuals reach the highest offices through party mechanisms is needed. I argue that the role of parties in democratic governance is not disappearing but changing. While voters ultimately decide election outcomes, party’s powerful act of preselecting the offer presented to them, especially the top candidate, is just as decisive in determining who will lead a nation. Studies on informal power structures in parties reveal that small, influential circles often determine party leadership, functioning as "king- or queenmakers" who select and strategically support candidates (Aylott & Bolin 2021, 2022). While formal candidate selection processes are well-documented (Pilet & Cross 2014), little is known about the informal selection criteria—often based on personality and contextual factors—that guide elite choices. Elements like power dynamics within parties, the party’s competitive standing, and broader circumstances like crises could set unique leadership standards. This project addresses the gap in understanding these informal criteria by examining the qualities party elites prioritize in different contexts. It explores how elite decision-making in the “secret garden of politics” (Gallagher & Marsh 1988) shapes leadership. To capture these insights, the project employs qualitative methods, focusing on expert interviews with party insiders involved in these informal decisions. By selecting diverse political contexts and party families, it uses a most-dissimilar systems approach to explore how different settings influence leader selection criteria. By integrating interviews with political insiders, this project will generate fresh empirical data and make a theoretical contribution by focusing on normative demands, this project offers a novel approach to understanding why certain individuals are given the opportunity to pursue the highest political positions and what role parties play in this.