Reframing Enlargement: Patron-Client Relationships in EU-Serbia Negotiations

Since the onset of the war in Ukraine in 2022, the European Union's enlargement policy has gained renewed momentum, driven primarily by geostrategic imperatives. However, a rapid expansion to 35 member states risks exacerbating internal EU instability amid rising populism, economic challenges, and migration pressures. This complex backdrop necessitates critically reassessing the EU's enlargement experiences, particularly with Western Balkan (WB) countries like Serbia. This study investigates how EU candidate states strategically leverage their candidate status to recalibrate asymmetrical power dynamics in relations with the EU, focusing on the role of the enlargement framework in shaping these dynamics. Departing from the traditional approach that attributes the stagnation of enlargement solely to the actions or intentions of the EU — whether it be the policies of the Juncker Commission, the desire for deeper integration, or 'enlargement fatigue,' the research applies the concept of international patron-client relationships (PCR) to the EU-Serbia context. While PCRs are typically examined in the foreign policies of global powers like the U.S. and China, this study extends the framework to the European landscape, elaborating on how these hierarchical and transactional relationships manifest within EU enlargement policy. By elaborating on PCR, the analysis reveals that despite significant economic and political dependence on the EU, Serbia has managed to increase its leverage, challenging the EU's ability to influence its political trajectory. In PCRs, small states like Serbia engage in asymmetric yet reciprocal relationships with patrons, negotiating autonomy in exchange for economic aid, security guarantees, and political support. This dynamic allows Serbia to benefit from the EU's resources and prestige while selectively complying with its demands, thereby recalibrating the power imbalance. This paradox arises from a shift in the negotiation power balance, where Serbia appears content with prolonged candidate status, benefiting from the journey without urgency for full membership. The EU, facing new security imperatives post-Ukraine war, must adopt more flexible strategies, effectively altering the traditional patron-client dynamics. The instrumentalisation of client relationships through enlargement policy has inadvertently diminished the EU's capacity to effect change, leading to a decline of EU power in EU-WB negotiations. Employing a three-tiered analytical approach — qualitative content analysis of EU documents on Serbia, semi-structured interviews with policymakers and experts, and interviews with Serbia's non-ruling political figures and local experts — the study uncovers factors limiting the EU's influence. It highlights how the EU's reliance on stabilising regional powers may inadvertently support "stabilocracies," where the pursuit of regional stability undermines democratic progress, which, as a result, diminishes EU influence in the region. This paper contributes to the theorisation and analysis of enlargement by highlighting the evolving nature of PCR in EU enlargement policy. Recognising these dynamics is crucial for the EU to adapt its policies and maintain its influence in a rapidly changing international order. The patron-client framework not only enhances our comprehension of the current challenges but also provides a valuable lens through which alternative strategies for enlargement can be conceptualised and implemented.