Navigating the Shift: Party Mobilization in the Era of Direct Democracy. An Analysis of Parties’ Role in Local Referendums in Flanders (Belgium).

The traditional powerful role that parties take up, according to the party paradigm, is increasingly challenged by the rise of democratic innovations, including referendums. Pertinent questions arise: Do these democratic innovations really imply a decline in the centrality of parties, suggesting a potential paradigm shift? Or do parties actively strive to maintain their power, and if so, how? One of the ways in which parties seek to maintain their power and exert considerable influence on the outcome of referendums is by assuming the role of participant (Thompson, 2018). By encouraging voters to participate, whether in favour of or against a particular proposal, parties aim to steer the referendum's outcome in their preferred direction. Therefore, we investigate in this paper how local parties respond to local referendums, focusing on this specific party strategy: i.e. voter mobilization This study provides the first empirical analysis of political party mobilization during local referendums. Grounded in a theoretical framework based on the three I's—institutions, ideas, and interests—we map to what extent local parties try to mobilize voters and examine the factors influencing party mobilization during local referendums. The analysis centers on local referendums organized in local municipalities in Flanders (Belgium) from 1996 to 2024 (N=25). Only parties represented in the municipal council at the time of the referendum were included in our sample, encompassing a total of 118 observations. Data were collected through a systematic examination of newspaper articles, compiled into a comprehensive dataset, and analysed using logistic regression. The findings clearly demonstrate that parties do not passively accept their loss of influence. Instead, they actively seek to maintain the relevance of the party paradigm. Over 75% of local parties engage in mobilization efforts during referendums, with mobilization levels varying by the topic at stake. Local government parties appear to focus more on mobilization efforts (and even more so when opposition parties have initiated the referendum), predominantly promoting pro-voting or encouraging voter abstention. This dominance could be explained by their desire to protect their current influence. Furthermore, this study will explore whether the size of the municipality, experience with referendums, party ideology, and the competitiveness of the referendum have an impact on party’s mobilization efforts. This study enhances our understanding of the dynamics between party politics and direct democracy, affirming that the party paradigm remains valuable for comprehending democratic processes. While other direct democratic forces have gained prominence, leading to an erosion of party influence, parties continue to undertake efforts to maintain their dominant role in governance through robust mobilization efforts.