Tombola Italiana: Unraveling the Paradox of Disparities in Asylum Adjudications in Italy

The integrity of international refugee law is undermined by significant variations and inconsistencies in asylum decisions, commonly referred to as ‘refugee roulettes’. These disparities, driven by socioeconomic and political factors as well as decision-makers’ biases, challenge the principles of fairness central to Refugee Status Determination (RSD) processes. In Italy, a general downward trend in asylum protection rates conceals substantial sub-national discrepancies. This research examines the influence of political and economic factors on asylum decisions, focusing particularly on the impact of a radical right Minister on asylum officials within a decentralised system. By employing the Principal-Agent Framework (PAF) complemented by insights into bureaucratic motivations, this study leverages the staggered rollout of Matteo Salvini’s local political appointees to explore the determinants of asylum decisions across different jurisdictions. Preliminary findings highlight the significant role of local political dynamics and economic conditions in shaping asylum outcomes, demonstrating that national-level influences are often mediated by local factors. Furthermore, these effects vary across different forms of protection, underscoring the complexity of the asylum process and the necessity for further research into these dynamics.