The metapolitical mainstreaming of the Great Replacement conspiracy theory and its democratic consequences

The concept of the “Great Replacement” emerged as a fringe notion in the early 2010s, with French writer Renaud Camus popularizing the idea in his works. Camus’ theory posits that Western governments and elites are orchestrating a demographic transformation through mass immigration, eroding the cultural and political dominance of native populations. Initially confined to the peripheries of far-right discourse, the “Great Replacement” has since been propelled into the mainstream, with significant portions of the American electorate, including a majority of Trump supporters, subscribing to the belief that the government is deliberately replacing them. This paper seeks to explore how far-right actors have employed Gramscian metapolitical strategies to achieve this mainstreaming. Central to the theory’s ascendancy has been the calculated dissemination through digital platforms, in particular in social networks, the adoption of coded language, and strategic alliances with prominent media figures and populist politicians. The paper will analyze the mechanisms used to amplify the theory, including the reframing of demographic concerns as existential threats and the invocation of nativist sentiments to appeal to broader conservative audiences. The paper will subsequently analyze the socio-political conditions that have enabled the Great Replacement theory to gain traction among far-right audiences and explore the profound democratic ramifications of its mainstreaming. On the demand side, the theory’s resonance is deeply rooted in widespread societal anxieties, particularly fears of perceived cultural and political marginalization among majority ethnic groups. These fears have been exacerbated by the strategic weaponization of demographic shifts in political discourse, framing such changes as existential threats. By recasting democratic governments as adversaries actively betraying their citizenry, the Great Replacement narrative erodes trust in institutional authority and fuels authoritarian tendencies. This destabilizing rhetoric has catalyzed significant political violence, including the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, as well as numerous far-right terrorist attacks explicitly motivated by the racist ideology embedded in the theory. The growing prominence of the Great Replacement’s central narrative, especially as it has become a tool wielded by right-wing populists, underscores the increasing susceptibility of democratic systems to the corrosive influence of conspiracy-driven mobilization. This research intends to contribute to the workshop by combining an analysis of far-right metapolitical strategy with the broader societal consequences of conspiracy theory normalization. By addressing these dimensions, this paper not only traces the mechanisms of the Great Replacement’s mainstreaming but also contributes to broader debates about the political, cultural, and democratic challenges posed by conspiracy theories. It thus offers insights into how the boundaries of acceptable political discourse are shifting and the attendant risks for democratic governance in the 21st century.