This paper investigates the political and emissions dynamics of gas delivery contracts, with a focus on the growing tension between international climate commitments and ongoing fossil fuel dependency. At COP28 in Dubai, global leaders pledged to “drive the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems,” reflecting a shared recognition of the urgent need to address climate change. However, in stark contrast to these declarations, new fossil fuel delivery contracts, particularly for natural gas, continue to be signed at an alarming rate. In 2023 alone, at least 45 new contracts for natural gas were concluded, with delivery periods extending up to 27 years. These agreements not only perpetuate future greenhouse gas emissions but also create long-term political and economic vulnerabilities by locking parties into interdependencies.
The objectives of this study are to examine how is carbon locked-in through gas contracts, analyze who is dependent on who and understand the role of power dynamics in shaping carbon lock-in. To do so, this study undertakes a comprehensive global mapping exercise. By considering both the suppliers and consumers in these arrangements, the paper reveals how the structure and duration of contracts reinforce asymmetrical power dynamics. In many cases, these agreements are designed to serve the strategic and commercial interests of energy-exporting nations, consolidating their leverage over importing countries. Conversely, importing states often face diminished policy flexibility (locking-in fossil fuels) and heightened vulnerability to supply disruptions. Usually, these types of analyses are not based on infrastructure (such as pipelines and LNG), but here we examine contracts.
Theoretically, this study draws on concepts of interdependence, institutional lock-in, and path dependency. These perspectives illuminate the mechanisms through which gas delivery contracts cement long-term commitments, even as global pressures to decarbonize intensify. Methodologically, this paper employs a mixed-methods approach. It integrates qualitative case studies of key regions, such as the EU, China and Japan, with quantitative network analysis of global gas flows and contract durations. This dual approach provides a nuanced understanding of how contractual relationships shape global energy markets and political alignments.
Ultimately, this paper contributes to the broader understanding of energy politics, emphasizing the enduring role of natural gas in shaping global power dynamics and the barriers it poses to achieving a sustainable energy transition. Through its detailed analysis of who is locked in, by whom, and for how long, the study sheds light on the challenges and opportunities at the nexus of energy security, climate action, and international relations.
