Trust Under Pressure: Navigating the EU Social Contract Amid Polycrisis.

The European Union (EU) social contract faces mounting challenges as radical right-wing parties gain support across member states. Surprisingly, levels of trust in European institutions are at historic highs, as demonstrated by longitudinal data and corroborated by recent literature. While trust has significantly improved since the 2008 economic crisis, the distribution of trust responses suggests possible polarization, according Bauer and Morisi’s (2023) insights into trust dynamics in times of crisis. In this paper, we investigate the socio-demographic shifts among citizens expressing very low trust in the European Parliament and explore how radical right-wing parties, by mobilizing previously abstaining voters, may paradoxically reinforce democratic participation. Understanding shifts in this profile over time could illuminate patterns of disillusionment or alienation among certain groups. Finally, we analyze public preferences for policy-making authority—whether delegated to the EU or retained nationally—and its relationship with trust. These findings illuminate trust’s pivotal role in shaping and sustaining the EU’s evolving social contract during an era of polycrisis.