Preparing for the Unknown: Finnish Energy Sector’s Preparedness for Risks Caused by Climate Change

Climate change poses an undeniable threat to the current way of life. As modern societies rely heavily on energy, the changing climate presents continuous challenges. These challenges are typically categorised into three types: direct impacts, cascading impacts, and transition impacts. This paper analyses the preparedness of the Finnish energy sector to address these risks and threats caused by climate change. First, it identifies the direct and indirect known and unknown threats. Second, it examines future expectations within the energy sector in relation to these risks. Third, it investigates the comprehensiveness of preparedness planning and proposes solutions to enhance the overall security framework. The analysis encompasses all key stakeholders, including transmission and distribution networks, various energy production and consumption facilities, as well as households and industries. Previous research has assessed risks, including those emerging from significant disruptions, such as the adjustments made to the Finnish energy sector following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It has also been suggested that Finland's comprehensive security system has already facilitated robust preparedness at the societal level. However, this paper focuses on how risks and threats specific to climate change are perceived and constructed by various stakeholders and how these perceptions influence preparedness. Special attention is given to regional differences, with a focus on the Arctic region. The paper employs key documents and expert interviews as its primary data sources. The documents include energy and climate strategies, Arctic strategies, and other key policy documents. Expert interviews, conducted in 2024–2025, represent all major actors in the Finnish energy sector. A content analysis is applied to the data, utilising a framework specifically developed to assess climate change awareness, risk evaluation, and adaptation. The study examines the period extending from the present day to beyond 2035, aligning with Finland’s goal of achieving national carbon neutrality by that year.