Promises Broken: Material Decline and Voter Behavior in Resource-Rich Authoritarian Regimes

What drives the decline of authoritarian mass movements despite early mass support? This paper examines shifting voting behavior in authoritarian contexts, challenging dominant theories that attribute changes largely to class conflict or ideology. Instead, we argue that the erosion of mass support for authoritarian ruling elites primarily stems from their declining capacity to deliver material benefits and privileges once guaranteed to their bases. Through a 25-year case study of Venezuela, we analyze the rise and fall of chavismo—a mass movement that thrived under Hugo Chávez (1999–2013) but unraveled under Nicolás Maduro (2013–present). In contrast to studies focusing on single elections to explain pro-government voting behavior, our analysis integrates electoral data from all presidential elections across national and subnational levels, offering a comprehensive perspective on long-term patterns of voter support and decline. Despite Venezuela’s oil wealth, the regime’s failure to sustain patronage amid economic mismanagement and rampant corruption eroded its foundational support. Employing unique electoral data, we assess predictors such as ideology, class dynamics, autocratization, and state fragility to explain this decline. Our findings advance scholarship on authoritarian regimes by unpacking how material deprivation in resource-rich states reshapes voter loyalties and destabilizes mass movements. This has critical implications for opposition strategies, democratization, and regime survival.