Losing Elections, Losing Trust? A Causal Investigation of the Winner-Loser Gap on Political Trust

Voters’ experiences of winning or losing elections significantly influence their attitudes, particu- larly satisfaction with democracy. Another important yet less studied outcome is political trust, and studies often rely on observational data collected after elections. We make three key contributions to this literature. First, we use a quasi-experimental design based on the implementation of the European Quality of Government Index Survey during elections across several European countries and regions, to demonstrate causal effects of elections on trust. Second, we introduce a novel theo- retical argument that voters of populist parties are especially sensitive to electoral outcomes. Third, we explore three ways to define ‘winners’ and ‘losers’: government/opposition status, vote margin changes, and results relative to polling. Our findings show that elections generally boost trust, with a pronounced winner-loser gap driven by winners, particularly when measured as entering government. Additionally, populist party voters exhibit greater sensitivity to these effects.