Generational Patterns of Civic Trust in the U.S. and Germany Across Time

In many countries, the apparent support for populist leaders, parties, and policies has raised concerns about democratic citizenship and resilience. Particular attention has been directed toward younger generations who, in large numbers, supported political parties rallying in favor of antidemocratic and illiberal policies in recent elections, including in the U.S. and Germany. This has baffled stakeholders and academics who expected a generational change leading to increasing support for liberal policies. This analysis examines institutional (dis-)trust to develop a typology of individuals’ trust in civic institutions, such as courts, the police, political parties, governments, or the media. Using nationally representative data from the U.S. and Germany – two countries that have developed a deep transatlantic relationship and whose populations follow in consecutive ranks in the most recent Edelman Trust Barometer of 2024 – latent class analysis demonstrates that four distinct patterns of trust and distrust in civic institutions seen among adults today were already visible among adolescents in both countries two decades ago. However, adults also show patterns of distrust not visible among adolescents two decades earlier. Further multinomial regression analyses compare these patterns of institutional (dis-)trust across different generations and over time, offering insights into change and stability. Specifically, trust in several institutions has declined, and comprehensive distrust has become common and is particularly common among younger generations. The analysis further illuminates the characteristics of the individuals holding different (dis-)trust patterns. Additionally, linear regression models illustrate how these patterns of (dis-)trust are associated with attitudes towards diverse populations and the nation, to which populists often appeal, as well as civic engagement. Differences and similarities between the U.S. and Germany are also highlighted with respect to all analyses. For example, a pattern of distrust not visible among adults in Germany emerged among those in the U.S. during the first Trump presidency, driven by declining trust in TV news. The results of these analyses will be discussed regarding the possible precursors of antidemocratic sentiment, the potential consequences for democratic resilience and stability, and their implications for public institutions and citizenship education.