The Public as Thermostat 2.0

As a defining feature of representative democracy, the policy-opinion nexus is crucial to understanding democratic functioning. To date, Wlezien’s (1995) thermostatic model provides one of the most insightful accounts of this relationship, allowing for theoretical, empirical, and normative examinations of the interplay between policy and public opinion. This study advances the thermostatic model by accounting for disaggregated public opinion based on group characteristics, an aspect largely overlooked by the original model. We theorise a differentiated thermostatic model and empirically illustrate its application across seven West European countries in the domain of redistribution, disaggregating public opinion by household income. Our findings reveal evidence of both public and policy responsiveness, suggesting effective representation. However, the results also highlight asymmetry between lower-income and higher-income cohorts, indicating a more complex relationship between policy and public opinion than the original thermostatic model presumes. These findings have important implications for the state of representation and democratic functioning.