Subjective Well-Being and Trust in Government: The Moderating Role of Personality Traits

According to the Happiness Contract Theory, individuals’ trust in institutions is explained by their subjective well-being (SWB). Citizens hold institutions accountable for ensuring conditions conducive to well-being and withdraw trust when these expectations are unmet. This theory suggests a within-individual mechanism where declines in SWB lead to reduced trust in institutions. However, longitudinal evidence remains inconclusive, and prior studies often overlook the moderating role of personality traits. I argue that the SWB-trust relationship is less elastic longitudinally within individuals due to the stabilizing influence of personality traits on SWB, while the relationship remains stronger across individuals. Using Dutch panel data, I first conduct descriptive analyses that reveal stronger between-individual than within-individual effects of SWB on trust. Multivariate regression models confirm the robustness of these effects across different specifications. Causal mediation analysis demonstrates that SWB mediates much of personality’s influence on trust in government. Lastly, quasi-experimental tests show that the effects of negative life shocks, such as separation, widowhood, or unemployment, on institutional trust are significantly moderated by personality traits. These findings contribute to the literature on institutional trust by highlighting the stabilizing role of personality traits in shaping both SWB and institutional trust levels, offering insights into the psychological underpinnings of trust in government.