The Effect of Presidential Elections on Political Trust in Semi-Presidential Regime: Evidence from a Panel Study in Lithuania

Political trust is a crucial element of democracy, particularly during times of crisis (Devine et al., 2024). As polarization in democracies intensifies and geopolitical tensions rise, research on political trust becomes increasingly relevant. The role of the president is particularly significant in these times, especially in semi-presidential systems. Presidents are expected to be unifying figures, rising above partisan politics. Additionally, many presidents have substantial influence over foreign policy and often enjoy higher popularity than parliaments and governments in semi-presidential regimes (Raunio and Sedelius, 2020). However, some studies suggest that direct presidential elections may negatively impact support for democracy. While elections are generally expected to enhance the legitimacy of democratic systems, evidence shows that direct presidential elections can decrease voter turnout in parliamentary elections (Tavits, 2009). Furthermore, research on the effects of elections on political trust indicates that context can mediate these effects. Some studies find positive effects for all voters (Hooghe and Stiers, 2016), while others emphasize the gap in political trust between winners and losers (Anderson and Tverdova, 2001; Craig et al., 2006). However, no studies have yet explored the causal relationship between voting in presidential elections and political trust at the individual level in European semi-presidential systems. This paper aims to address that gap. The 2024 elections in Lithuania provide an ideal case for this analysis. Both presidential and parliamentary elections were held in the same year, offering an opportunity to examine how the presidential election (held in late spring) affected political trust and whether these effects extended to the parliamentary elections in autumn (also considering other relevant overlaps between voters and elections). Three waves of panel surveys—conducted before the presidential election, after it, and after the parliamentary election—offer a unique opportunity to explore the causal relationship between voting in the presidential election and its impact on political trust.