The Role of Meritocratic Belief-Preference Alignment in Political Trust

This study examines how the congruence between meritocratic beliefs and preferences among Finnish citizens relates to their political trust. Meritocratic beliefs refer to the perception whether getting ahead and success in society is based on hard work and ability rather than external factors like family background or social connections. Meritocratic preferences denote normative expectations regarding how important different factors should be in achieving success. The congruence between these beliefs and preferences may serve as an indicator of citizens' satisfaction with the political system and, consequently, affect their level of political trust Grounded in institutional and policy theories of political trust, which emphasize the role of institutional performance in meeting citizens’ expectations, this study extends existing research on political trust by focusing on the underexplored individual-level congruence between beliefs and preferences about meritocracy. Finland provides a relevant context for this analysis due to its strong emphasis on equality of opportunity and its relatively high levels of political trust, making it an ideal case for investigating the relationship between perceived fairness and trust in institutions. We hypothesize that the greater congruence between meritocratic preferences and perceptions reflects citizens' satisfaction with how the political system meets their expectations about the factors influencing success and getting ahead, leading to higher levels of trust in the political regime. Conversely, incongruence between preferences and perceptions indicates dissatisfaction with the system, likely resulting in lower levels of trust. Using survey data from a representative sample of 3,350 Finnish citizens aged 18–80, collected in 2024, we analysed how political trust was predicted by the alignment between respondents’ beliefs and preferences regarding meritocratic and non-meritocratic factors influencing success in society. Political trust was measured by respondents' trust in parliament, political parties, and politicians. A survey is linked with respondent’s admin registers, providing us complete and reliable data of demographic and socioeconomic variables. Moreover, we considered the set of control variables measuring respondents’ political engagement, subjective well-being, and social capital. The findings confirmed that greater congruence between meritocratic beliefs and preferences is associated with higher levels of political trust, and conversely, incongruence predicted lower trust, even after accounting for background and control variables. Interaction analyses revealed that this relationship holds consistently across educational groups, while mixed-effects models with random slopes showed no significant occupational variation. Overall, the findings suggest that political trust is linked to how citizens' expectations of equal opportunities are met. This opens up several opportunities for future research and highlights the need for policy makers to prioritize transparency and fairness in policies affecting social mobility to reduce dissatisfaction and increase trust in political institutions. Future research could explore the dynamics of variables by using longitudinal data and in other cultural and political contexts to assess the generalizability of these findings.