Political Trust as a Mediator and Moderator in the Geography of Discontent: Regional Economic Development and Support for Populist Parties

The growing literature on the geography of discontent argues that socio-economic decline in "left-behind" regions fosters electoral support for challenger parties, particularly on the far-right, as a reaction to political and institutional neglect. While this framework effectively links regional deprivation to political outcomes, it often neglects the crucial role of citizens’ political attitudes in mediating or moderating these dynamics. This paper advances the argument that political trust – an individual-level evaluation of institutional performance – is a key mechanism through which regional economic conditions influence support for populist parties on the far-left and particularly the far-right. Drawing on social identity theory and recent research on place resentment, I posit that socio-economic decline fosters sentiments of neglect and abandonment, which erode political trust. Low trust in political institutions heightens citizens’ susceptibility to the anti-establishment rhetoric of populist parties, particularly in regions experiencing economic stagnation or decline. This paper systematically investigates whether political trust mediates the relationship between regional socio-economic development and voting for populist parties, converting objective economic grievances into political discontent. Furthermore, I explore whether political trust moderates this relationship by shaping how citizens interpret and respond to economic conditions. In high-trust regions, economic grievances may be less likely to translate into support for populist parties, whereas in low-trust regions, these grievances may amplify populist voting. Empirically, this study employs multi-level models combining individual-level survey data from several European countries in the European Social Survey (ESS) with macro-level indicators of regional socio-economic performance. Through causal mediation analysis, I test whether variations in political trust mediate the relationship between regional economic disparities and voting behaviour. To assess moderation, I examine whether the strength of this relationship varies across regions with differing levels of political trust. The analysis contributes to understanding how regional economic contexts interact with individual political attitudes to shape electoral outcomes, offering new insights into the role of political trust in the geography of discontent. This research bridges the gap between macro-level socio-economic conditions and micro-level voting behaviour, highlighting the importance of citizens’ subjective evaluations of political institutions. It refines the geography of discontent framework by establishing political trust as a critical intermediary variable that connects regional economic disparities with support for populist parties on the left and far-right. These findings have implications for addressing political discontent in economically lagging regions and mitigating the rise of populist movements in Europe.