Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries is a major commitment of the climate change mitigation framework. Yet, deforestation and primary forest loss continue, and only a few successful cases have emerged. Key questions remain, such as: Which factors enable transformation from business as usual to reduced deforestation? And how do changes of these factors affect deforestation over time? We employ a qualitative comparative analysis, based on a unique time series dataset from 11 tropical countries between 2012 and 2022. We identify several theoretically viable ‘recipes’ - combinations of causal factors - which enable successful efforts to halt deforestation and forest degradation. Yet, the results also indicate trade-offs between recipes’ ingredients, our individual factors, such as when national ownership over REDD+ and related policies is accompanied by lack of inclusivity of the policy processes. While REDD+ policies alone are not able to induce change, they can contribute to strengthening the enabling conditions that counter powerful drivers of deforestation.
