Play Your Cards Right: Demystifying No-Confidence Motions in Semi-Presidential Democracies

This study identifies the conditions under which governments are unable to survive no-confidence motions (NCMs) in semi-presidential democracies. This study argues that a better understanding of the occurrence and success of NCMs should focus on the combination of government status and the dynamics of actors—internal government divisions for majority cabinets and external opposition collaborations for minority cabinets. Intra-executive conflicts may serve as a signal to accelerate unity and cooperation between parliamentary opposition parties, increasing the likelihood of an NCM in minority governments. Three types of divisions within the government would influence the alignment of the actors’ incentives and the balance of power between the government and the opposition, thereby determining the outcomes of NCMs in majority governments. This study also examined theoretical expectations associated with crisis and non-crisis periods. This study confirmed hypotheses developing a novel data set on 21 semi-presidential democracies, employing quantitative analysis and qualitative comparative analysis.