Presidential Leadership, Institutional Constraints, and the Geopolitics of Energy: The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Implications

This paper analyzes the role of presidential leadership in navigating the energy dimensions of the Russia-Ukraine War (2022–2024), focusing on how the conflict has reshaped global energy geopolitics and tested institutional constraints on executive decision-making. The war has highlighted the strategic importance of energy infrastructure as both a target and a tool in geopolitical competition, with profound implications for domestic governance, international alliances, and global markets. By examining the interplay between executive leadership and institutional frameworks in key actors—Russia, Ukraine, and European Union member states—this paper explores how energy security has become a central axis of crisis management and strategic competition. The paper focuses on three key dimensions: 1. Russia’s Energy Weaponization and Presidential Strategy: Analyzing how Russian President Vladimir Putin has leveraged energy exports as a geopolitical weapon while facing institutional constraints, such as economic sanctions and declining state revenues. This section evaluates the Kremlin’s pivot to non-European markets, including China and India, and its limited success in mitigating economic losses from reduced European gas trade. 2. Ukraine’s Energy Resilience under Crisis Leadership: by examining President Volodymyr Zelensky’s leadership in maintaining Ukraine’s energy resilience amidst Russian attacks on critical infrastructure to highlight how Ukraine’s institutional responses—such as air defense improvements and international partnerships—have mitigated the impact of energy disruptions while strengthening its position in the broader geopolitical struggle. 3. European Leadership and Institutional Adaptation: Investigating how European leaders have navigated institutional constraints to reduce dependence on Russian energy imports while accelerating transitions to renewable energy. This section evaluates policy innovations, such as the EU’s REPowerEU plan, and their implications for long-term energy security and global emissions targets By integrating these case studies, the paper argues that while strong executive action is critical during crises, institutional adaptability is equally essential for sustainable governance. This paper offers a focused analysis of how presidential leadership shapes—and is shaped by—the geopolitics of energy during times of crisis. It provides comparative insights into the interplay between executive power, institutional constraints, and strategic competition in one of the most consequential conflicts of the 21st century. The paper employs a comparative case study approach using qualitative data from primary sources (e.g., presidential decrees, policy documents), secondary literature on energy security and geopolitics, and expert analyses. It integrates theoretical perspectives from international relations (e.g., resource geopolitics) with empirical evidence from Russia, Ukraine, and Europe.