Drifting Apart? Polarization in Political Trust

The debate on the so-called crisis of democracy has largely centered on a structural decline in trust in political institutions within countries and the extent to which these trends can be attributed to negative political performance. While this focus on average levels of political trust is valuable, it masks the distribution of trust across society. Polarization of political trust poses significant risks, including societal conflict over the legitimacy of political institutions and their policies. This research note examines whether citizens are increasingly diverging in their trust in national political institutions by analyzing survey data from the ESS. It assesses not only dispersion in political trust (variance) but also potential bimodality (kurtosis) and consolidation (explained variance by socio-demographics). Next, it employs Dutch panel data (2008–2023) to identify which societal groups polarized in their political trust over time, focusing on age, gender, education, and party support. The findings provide critical insights into the dynamics of trust polarization, with implications for understanding how societal divisions are challenging the legitimacy of democratic institutions.