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Political Ambition in the Shadow of Violence: Elections, Gender and Political Machines in Colombia

Elections
Latin America
Political Competition
Political Parties
Political Violence
Mixed Methods
Survey Research
Juan Diego Duque
Uppsala Universitet
Juan Diego Duque
Uppsala Universitet

Abstract

In the context of election violence, why do some politicians withdraw from politics while others do not?Candidates must navigate these high-risk environments as they compete for office. Yet, while some politicians endure and continue their careers, others exit politics due to violence. This paper explores this puzzle by examining why, when, and how election insecurity shapes the political ambition of candidates in Colombia. First, I argue that election insecurity dampens political ambition by increasing campaign costs. Second, politicians embedded in informal political networks, which provide protection, are less affected by election insecurity, a process I term the ‘bulletproofing effect’ of informal political networks. Third, this effect is gendered: women benefit more from machine support than men. As women often enter politics with fewer resources than men, the support of networks enhanced their ability to navigate violent campaigns. I provide evidence for these three arguments, utilizing novel quantitative and qualitative data from 10,000 responses of local politicians, 100 in-depth interviews with political elites, and field notes collected during observations of political campaigns for the 2023 local elections in Colombia.