The overturning of Roe v. Wade in June of 2022 constituted the largest policy change to abortion access in nearly fifty years. Prior to the 2022 midterm elections, women were predicted to be especially motivated to turn out to vote, purportedly driven by abortion right restrictions. This expectation is consistent with a well-established theory in political science that beneficiaries of government policies or programs will turn out to vote at higher rates. However, beneficiaries of certain policies may not support their existence on ideological grounds, and those who do not support the policy may not turn out to protect it. Using a national voter file and geographic variation in abortion laws, I assess the impact of reduced access to abortion clinics on political participation among women — the demographic most directly affected. I find that restrictions on abortion do not substantially increase or decrease the participation of women. Using several complementary designs and data sources, I present evidence that attitudes around abortion are more important than gender for predicting who will be mobilized by abortion restrictions and access. This suggests that attitudes around politicized policies may be more important than policy benefits when it comes to motivating participation in politics.
