Social Europe during polycrises: The Interplay of Identity, Trust, and Economic Interests

The growing asymmetry between the European Union’s deep economic integration and its limited social governance has renewed debate about the political legitimacy of an expanded EU role in welfare provision. This paper examines the determinants of public support for European social governance during the polycrisis decade, by focusing on the interplay between collective identity, material self-interest, institutional trust, and crisis context. Using four waves of the European Strategic Choices panel survey (2020–2025) in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, we analyze how these factors shape citizens’ preferences for transferring social- policy competences from the national to the EU level. The findings reveal three core insights. First, support for EU-level social governance is highest after crises, not during them, indicating that legitimacy gains depend on the visibility and perceived fairness of EU action rather than on shared exposure alone. Second, collective identity remains the most powerful and stable predictor: exclusive nationalists consistently oppose supranational authority, and this opposition endures across contexts. Third, material vulnerability and trust in the EU exert limited or conditional effects, economic hardship reduces support only during crises, while trust increases it. Overall, the results indicate that crises function as polity-building contexts that update individuals’ support for EU social governance beyond their disruptive moments.