In many Western democracies, a “modern gender gap” has emerged in recent years: men are more likely to vote for extreme right parties, while women tend to support progressive left-leaning ones. In Germany, this divide is particularly visible in voting for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Prior research has established that anti-egalitarian gender attitudes are associated with right-wing voting. Yet, most studies rely on cross-sectional data and therefore cannot explain why this gender gap is widening over time.
This paper investigates whether changes in and politicization of gender attitudes can account for the growing gender voting gap in Germany. Drawing on backlash theory and status threat perspectives, we test two complementary mechanisms. The first, an attitude-change mechanism, assumes that shifts in gender attitudes – particularly increasing traditionalism or antifeminism among men – contribute to a growing divide in party preferences. The second, an attitude-activation mechanism, assumes that gender attitudes have become more politically salient, i.e., that their influence on voting behavior has increased even if the attitudes themselves may have remained largely stable. Both mechanisms are examined separately for men and women to assess gender-specific dynamics in attitudinal change and political responsiveness.
Empirically, we use panel data from the GESIS Panel.pop (2021 and 2024) linking measures of antifeminism, gender role attitudes, sexism, and perceptions of discrimination to actual voting behavior. Applying hybrid panel models allows us to separate between-person differences from within-person changes, and to test whether attitude shifts or increasing political activation explain the gendered polarization in AfD voting. By tracing attitudinal and contextual processes within individuals, this study advances our understanding of how gendered cultural conflict may fuel electoral polarization.
