The idea of "winnability" is often invoked as an objective criterion for candidate selection and is typically understood in the literature on candidate selection as the probability of electoral success. Existing studies on winnability have largely focused on the electoral odds of women candidates. This paper, however, argues that winnability is a deeply gendered construct that operates as a gatekeeping mechanism in the early stages of political competition. Focusing on the context of Kerala, a state widely renowned for its consistently strong performance on human development indicators and for women's active participation in local politics, the paper examines how the “masculinised ethos” of political space shapes the winnability of women in politics.
Despite consistently good performance on the indicators of gender equality, comparable to some of the advanced industrial countries, women in Kerala have had minimal presence in the higher levels of politics. Drawing on fieldwork with local body representatives and party activists across four districts in Kerala, the study reveals that before candidates are even considered for election, they undergo a process of “filtering” on the basis of winnability. Here, the idea of winnability primarily revolves around “political experience” and “public familiarity”, which contribute to the “personal vote” of the candidate. However, the study argues that the formation of “experience” and “familiarity” is a gendered process, shaped by the masculinised ethos of the political setting and gendered access to public spaces. This systematic privileging of masculinity renders politics a natural domain for men.
I argue here that the winnability is not a neutral measure; instead, the idea of winnability is constituted through gendered components of “experience” and “familiarity”. Even when the gatekeepers do not directly express their gender bias in recruitment, the gendered ideas shaping the winnability of the individual impact the odds of their candidature. The paper contributes to feminist analyses of party gatekeeping by demonstrating how gendered logics of winnability sustain women’s under-representation even in contexts of high social development.
