Mobilizing Support or Deepening Divides? Protest Support in Polarized Brazil

Civil resistance is often seen as a driver of democratization, but its effects vary—especially in polarized contexts. While peaceful, pro-democratic protests can pressure elites and mobilize public support, protest movements may also deepen divisions or empower anti-democratic forces. This study examines when protests attract broad support versus when they heighten polarization. Using a conjoint survey experiment in Brazil—a country where the trend of autocratization has recently reversed but remains marked by high levels of polarization—I analyze how protest tactics (violent vs. nonviolent), values (pro-democratic vs. anti-democratic), and their political alignment shape public responses. Based on a sample of about 1,200 respondents, results show that peaceful, pro-democratic protests—especially those emphasizing electoral democracy principles—receive the strongest support. However, partisan alignment and issue framing condition these effects: in-group or polarizing protests divide opinion along party lines. Crucially, violent or anti-democratic protests are widely rejected, even by co-partisans. These findings reveal how protest can either reinforce democratic norms or fuel division, depending on its form and context.