The Paradox of Democratic Inclusion: Why Some Sub-Saharan African States Fail to Adopt Reserved Seats for Women

Reserved seats for women have significantly increased legislative representation in sub‑Saharan Africa. However, their adoption follows a counterintuitive pattern; that is, they are more readily institutionalised under authoritarian and hybrid regimes than in pluralistic or competitive systems. This study examines why such reforms fail in contexts where they are formally proposed but do not reach adoption. It identifies associational autonomy and executive constraints as main institutional features shaping these outcomes. Using original data on all identified reserved-seat adoption attempts in sub-Saharan Africa from 1980 to 2024, logistic regression analysis reveals that these mechanisms interact, producing a compounded deterrent effect that exceeds either mechanism alone. This interaction helps explain variation in reform outcomes across political systems, indicating a paradox of democratic inclusion in which reserved seats are least likely to succeed where advocacy is most active and institutional constraints are strongest. The study contributes to research on institutional change and gender and politics in sub‑Saharan Africa by showing how specific democratic institutions can impede mandated‑outcome reforms.