Between Two Worlds? Russian-Speakers in Latvia and Their Perceptions of Democracy

My paper explores the intersection of ethnic identity, historical memory, and democratic engagement, focusing on the Russian-speaking minority (which constitutes approximately 25% of the population in Latvia) and their trust in political institutions. After the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this minority group has faced increasing marginalization, which, in turn, has intensified societal cleavages and may erode democratic cohesion. At the same time, research shows that mobilized ethnic minorities can potentially serve as an antidote to democratic backsliding, as they traditionally advocate for inclusion and human rights (Agarin & Nakai, 2021). Drawing on a nationally representative survey conducted in 2023, this study investigates two hypotheses: (H1) that Russian-speakers differ significantly from the Latvian majority in their trust in institutions and satisfaction with democracy, and (H2) that these differences are rooted in divergent historical experiences, particularly those related to the Soviet past. The findings aim to advance our understanding of how ethnic identity and autocratic legacies influence democratic resilience.