Referendums in Non-Democracies

Similar to elections, referendums as popular votes on issues of policy are a regular feature across democracies and autocracies. Other than elections, referendums across regime types have been investigated far less frequently in the literature. Previous research has found that autocrats launch referendums as a legitimizing strategy to stay in power. However, the triggers of referendums in non-democratic states have not yet been investigated. We thus do not yet fully understand when an autocrat launches a referendum. This article intends to fill this lacuna in the literature by arguing that a referendum is a sign that an autocrat’s rule is being challenged. It first demonstrates the extent to which referendums have been held in non-democracies, before discussing why autocrats would launch referendums. Based on prior research, it theorizes different challenges to authoritarian rule and their effect on the probability of autocrats launching a referendum. It then tests this theory in a multilevel model comparing authoritarian regimes between 1950 and 2020.