Who Represents Whom? Comparing Expert Judgments and Voter Perceptions of Party Target Groups in the 2025 German Election

The relationship between socio-economic groups and political parties has long been a central focus in political science, explored through various theoretical and empirical approaches. Classic socio-structural theories, such as cleavage theory, emphasize deep-rooted societal divisions, while spatial models of voting highlight the role of policy proximity. More recent research, including studies on issue ownership and valence politics, suggests that electoral success depends not only on policy appeals but also on how parties signal alignment with specific social groups. The growing literature on group appeals has further demonstrated that parties compete not just on policy but also on perceived group representation. Building on this, the article investigates how parties are perceived in terms of their target groups — such as low-income individuals, families, retirees, young people, and rural residents — in the context of the 2025 German federal elections. Drawing on data from the Open Expert Survey, which surveys political scientists in Germany, and the Politikpanel Deutschland post-election survey with approximately 8.600 respondents, this study compares expert judgments and voter perceptions using identical questions featured in both surveys. Additionally, it explores how socio-demographic characteristics shape perceptions of party target groups, which allows for a discussion of whether perceived party-group alignments correspond to electoral outcomes. Interesting examples are the success of Die Linke among young voters or the AfD's appeal among workers. Methodologically, the paper builds upon descriptive statistics and regression models to identify potential differences between experts and the electorate. In summary, the study makes a twofold contribution. Methodologically, it evaluates the strengths and limitations of expert surveys as tools for understanding political representation and party positioning. Substantively, it deepens our understanding of how parties are perceived in terms of their target groups by both experts and the electorate. These findings offer broader insights into political representation and the role of expert knowledge in electoral studies