Explaining the Conservative Youth Turn: An Experimental Study of Social Norms, Gender, and Digital Media

Amid rising concerns about democratic backsliding, scholars observe a puzzling conservative turn among younger generations, challenging assumptions about their democratic roles. While existing research often attributes this shift to economic precarity, cultural insecurity, or a backlash against depoliticization, the role of social influence and conformity remains underexplored. This paper investigates the extent to which young citizens’ commitment to core democratic principles is shaped by the perceived attitudes of their peers, offering a social-psychological mechanism to help explain this rightward shift. Theoretically, we posit that during the formative life stage of young adulthood––where identity is fluid and peer acceptance is paramount––social norms are a potent driver of political opinion. We argue that peer influence is a key, and currently underexplored, mechanism for understanding the conservative youth turn. When illiberal or far-right attitudes (e.g., hostility towards elites, institutional distrust, anti-immigration attitudes, and support for radical-right policies) are perceived as normative among peers, social pressure can erode democratic commitment and fuel support for these specific attitudes. To test this primary argument, we conduct a pre-registered survey experiment with samples of American, Australian, Canadian, and British citizens (ensuring oversampling of those between the ages of 18-35). Participants are randomly assigned to one of three conditions: a control group, a group exposed to information signalling a strong pro-democratic norm among their peers, or a group exposed to norms reflecting institutional distrust and illiberal/far-right attitudes (e.g., tolerance for restricting protests; acceptance of political violence; support for strict anti-immigration policies). Participants’ subsequent support for various far-right policies and attitudes are measured and compared across conditions. This study also considers two important interacting variables behind the causal pathways. Indeed, using moderation analyses, we explore the heterogeneous nature of the social influence effect, specifically examining (1) the potential amplifying role of digital mobilisation and high social media usage, and (2) potential gender differences in susceptibility, linking directly to the the gendered socialisation literature and the overrepresentation of young men in the far-right. This study provides robust experimental evidence of the causal effect of social norms on the political attitudes of young citizens. By demonstrating the malleability of youth commitment, our findings contribute directly to explaining why a generation expected to drive progress is instead turning rightward. We show that social norms are a critical factor that can facilitate this conservative youth turn. Our findings bridge debates on democratic participation and youth studies by highlighting conformity––amplified by digital media and varying by gender––as a key mechanism driving the real-world puzzles of youth illiberalism.